# Exchange Rate Results

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1: Z → log REER | log_reer | 1572 | 55 | 0.028 |
| M2: Z → ΔREER | d_reer | 1540 | 55 | 0.026 |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | log_reer | 1572 | 55 | 0.038 |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | log_reer | 1572 | 55 | 0.010 |
| M5: age ratios → log REER | log_reer | 1572 | 55 | 0.022 |
| M6a: OECD Z → log REER | log_reer | 1041 | 36 | 0.064 |
| M6b: non-OECD Z → log REER | log_reer | 531 | 19 | 0.073 |
| M7: Z → carry vs USA | carry_vs_usa | 813 | 23 | 0.448 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1: Z → log REER | Z_1 | -0.5256 | 0.5142 | 0.3069 |  |
| M1: Z → log REER | Z_2 | 0.0658 | 0.0716 | 0.3580 |  |
| M1: Z → log REER | Z_3 | -0.0024 | 0.0028 | 0.3883 |  |
| M2: Z → ΔREER | Z_1 | -11.5873 | 10.8486 | 0.2856 |  |
| M2: Z → ΔREER | Z_2 | 1.8664 | 1.5098 | 0.2166 |  |
| M2: Z → ΔREER | Z_3 | -0.0778 | 0.0583 | 0.1824 |  |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | Z_1 | -0.2151 | 0.6436 | 0.7382 |  |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | Z_2 | 0.0178 | 0.0911 | 0.8448 |  |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | Z_3 | -0.0004 | 0.0036 | 0.9084 |  |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | Z_1_x_kaopen | -0.2342 | 0.3007 | 0.4361 |  |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | Z_2_x_kaopen | 0.0367 | 0.0427 | 0.3901 |  |
| M3: Z×KAOPEN → log REER | Z_3_x_kaopen | -0.0015 | 0.0017 | 0.3651 |  |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | Z_1 | -0.4921 | 0.5228 | 0.3468 |  |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | Z_2 | 0.0607 | 0.0727 | 0.4039 |  |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | Z_3 | -0.0022 | 0.0028 | 0.4330 |  |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | Z_1_x_nfa | -1.1658 | 0.4508 | 0.0098 | *** |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | Z_2_x_nfa | 0.1484 | 0.0646 | 0.0219 | ** |
| M4: Z×NFA → log REER | Z_3_x_nfa | -0.0055 | 0.0026 | 0.0332 | ** |
| M5: age ratios → log REER | old_dep | -0.1337 | 0.1571 | 0.3949 |  |
| M5: age ratios → log REER | youth_dep | 0.0838 | 0.1209 | 0.4881 |  |
| M6a: OECD Z → log REER | Z_1 | -0.6611 | 0.7468 | 0.3762 |  |
| M6a: OECD Z → log REER | Z_2 | 0.0751 | 0.0997 | 0.4516 |  |
| M6a: OECD Z → log REER | Z_3 | -0.0027 | 0.0037 | 0.4764 |  |
| M6b: non-OECD Z → log REER | Z_1 | -0.1205 | 0.8511 | 0.8874 |  |
| M6b: non-OECD Z → log REER | Z_2 | 0.0131 | 0.1254 | 0.9169 |  |
| M6b: non-OECD Z → log REER | Z_3 | -0.0004 | 0.0051 | 0.9383 |  |
| M7: Z → carry vs USA | Z_1 | -9.8218 | 14.4022 | 0.4955 |  |
| M7: Z → carry vs USA | Z_2 | 1.0830 | 1.9160 | 0.5721 |  |
| M7: Z → carry vs USA | Z_3 | -0.0415 | 0.0713 | 0.5611 |  |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, inflation, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*